Are insiders profiting from the Iran war?

This episode of ABC News Daily investigates growing concerns that insiders may be profiting from sensitive geopolitical developments, particularly surrounding U.S. and Israeli military actions in Iran. Host Sam Hawley speaks with UCLA law professor Andrew Versteen about unusual trading patterns in oil futures and prediction markets like Polymarket, where bets on military strikes and political upheavals have yielded massive profits. Notably, a single anonymous account reportedly made millions by betting on Iran-related events—including strikes, diplomatic breakthroughs, and the fall of Venezuela’s Maduro—just hours before they occurred. The episode highlights the lack of regulatory oversight in commodity and prediction markets, raising alarms about insider trading, anonymity, and the use of cryptocurrency to obscure identities. While no concrete evidence links government officials to these trades, the timing, volume, and profitability of the bets suggest systemic vulnerabilities. The discussion also touches on similar incidents in Israel, where soldiers were arrested for speculative betting on military operations. The episode concludes with calls for stronger regulation and transparency to prevent exploitation of public information for private gain.