UFC Vegas 116 Breakdowns + Free Picks

The host of Beat The Books Podcast delivers a candid, no-fluff breakdown of UFC Vegas 116, calling it a 'not great card' both in terms of fight quality and betting value. Despite the lack of standout matchups, he identifies key strategic plays across the card, emphasizing discipline over chasing every fight. The main event between Sterling and Zalal is framed as a pivotal, high-stakes clash where the winner is just one fight away from a title shot—yet the host refuses to bet it, citing uncertainty in Sterling’s commitment to wrestling and Zalal’s elite defensive movement. Instead, he leans toward Zalal but favors the 'over rounds' market as his top play. For the women’s bout, he backs Colmaine Dumont despite the steep -240 price, citing her superior resume and grappling control, though he warns against over-investing in mid-tier women’s MMA. The Hernandez vs. Garcia fight is approached with caution due to injury concerns and betting irregularities, while the Martinetti debut against Davey Grant is deemed too risky—despite the +110 price—because of the mismatch in experience and the UFC’s questionable matchmaking. The final highlight is Barcelos vs. Jackson, where the host finds value in Barcelos at +150, betting on his grappling dominance and durability, though he remains skeptical of Jackson’s ability to generate enough volume to overcome the reach disadvantage.