Iran’s economy: Counting the cost of war

Iran's economy is facing a crisis of survival, with war-related damage estimated at $100 billion in just the first month—more than a year’s worth of oil exports. As internet blackouts stretch beyond 40 days, small businesses reliant on digital connectivity are collapsing, and ordinary Iranians report losing jobs, facing unpayable debts, and living in fear of daily attacks. The country’s already fragile economy, weakened by years of sanctions and inflation exceeding 50%, is now trapped in a cycle of destruction: infrastructure damage reduces production, which worsens shortages and inflation, while the government’s self-inflicted internet shutdown deepens the economic freeze. Even if a ceasefire holds, rebuilding will be nearly impossible without the removal of U.S. primary sanctions, which block access to critical machinery and global financial systems. The real prize isn’t tolls from the Strait of Hormuz—those are politically untenable—but broad, unconditional sanctions relief, which could unlock billions in investment and trade. Yet with protests already rising and the regime prepared to crush dissent, Iran’s path to recovery hinges not just on war’s end, but on whether the international community chooses to lift the economic stranglehold that has long defined its isolation.