"Russia Isn’t Interested In Any Fast Resolution Of The Hormuz Crisis" – Tatiana Mitrova, Center on Global Energy Policy

In this episode of C.O.B. Tuesday, Maynard Mike and Gabe Collins host Dr. Tatyana Mitrova, a research fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University, to analyze the evolving geopolitical and energy dynamics surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war and the ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz. Mitrova explains that Russia has no interest in a swift resolution to the Hormuz crisis, as prolonged instability benefits Moscow by driving up oil prices, disrupting Western supply chains, and diverting U.S. attention from Ukraine. She details how Russia’s energy sector has adapted to relentless drone attacks on its export infrastructure, including refineries and Baltic ports, resulting in a 40% loss of export capacity. Despite war fatigue and economic strain, the Russian government maintains tight control through propaganda, repression, and economic insulation, keeping elites and urban populations shielded from the war’s hardships while mobilizing the poor and marginalized for frontline service. Mitrova also discusses Russia’s strategic pivot to Asia, particularly China and India, and the long-term risks of economic erosion and social fragmentation. The conversation underscores how the war in Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East are deeply interconnected, with Russia strategically benefiting from both crises to prolong its survival and global influence. Key takeaways include: Russia is not seeking peace in Ukraine because territorial gains are essential to Putin’s domestic legitimacy; drone warfare has fundamentally changed energy security, forcing Russian companies to build anti-drone defenses; the U.S.-Iran conflict is indirectly benefiting Russia by keeping oil prices high and diverting Western military focus; Russia’s economy is resilient due to massive state funding and oil windfalls, but faces long-term degradation; and the upcoming Trump-Xi meeting may hinge on progress in the Iran conflict, with both superpowers seeking a new balance to avoid direct confrontation. Mitrova concludes that while Russia’s current model is sustainable for years, the social and economic costs of prolonged war will eventually erode its stability.