“There’s always a bull market somewhere in small caps” - Tobias Bucks
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In this episode of Equity Mates Investing Podcast, host Bryce is joined by returning guest Tobias Bucks, Portfolio Manager for the Global Small Caps Fund at Ausbill Investment Management. Tobias shares his evolving investment philosophy over the past five years, highlighting a shift from US-centric growth investing to a renewed focus on global small caps, particularly in Japan, Europe, and the electrification of infrastructure. He emphasizes the importance of a 'value bias' in growth investing, warning against the psychological biases that lead investors to overpay for high-growth stocks. Drawing on behavioral studies from MIT and Stanford, Tobias illustrates how perceived value affects performance and decision-making. He discusses the current state of the small cap market, identifying enduring bull markets in electric grid infrastructure, defense, AI data centers, and onshoring trends, despite geopolitical risks like the conflict in Iran. Tobias also reveals his stock picks—Mueller Industries and NKT—both niche leaders in industrial and energy infrastructure with strong management, undervaluation, and exposure to long-term structural trends. He stresses the importance of active management, disciplined selling, and maintaining a journal to improve investment judgment over time.
Always look for high-quality, niche leaders in small caps with strong management and undervaluation, not just high growth.
Adopt a 'value bias' in growth investing—focus on attractive entry prices, as high multiples are unsustainable in rising interest rate environments.
The electric grid, defense, and AI infrastructure are key structural themes driving long-term small cap opportunities.
Be disciplined about selling: don’t wait for a top; sell when valuation becomes stretched, even if the business is strong.
Keep a detailed investment journal to track emotions, reasoning, and decisions—this is critical for long-term improvement.
Introduction and Sponsorship
The episode opens with standard disclaimers and sponsor announcements for Viola Private Wealth and Vanta, highlighting their services in portfolio management and automated compliance.
Tobias Bucks Returns: A Five-Year Evolution
“We had a lot of focus on the US back then... I think going forward we have seen some changes and there's good opportunity to invest in Japan and in Europe.”
The Psychology of Value: Bias in Growth Investing
“We ascribe poor value to something that we think is cheap. And we justify value or usefulness to something that we think is expensive.”
Interest Rates, Duration, and Valuation Sensitivity
“If a stock's trading on over 25 times earnings for a 1% increase in the discount rate, it needs almost over a 15% increase in earnings to keep the same fair value.”
Current Small Cap Landscape: War, Inflation, and Opportunity
“There is always a bull market somewhere. I think a lot of bull markets have ended. But there's some areas that have got some themes that are still going well.”
“Keep a journal... write down your feelings, write down your workings, write down your calculations.”
“We ascribe poor value to something that we think is cheap. And we justify value or usefulness to something that we think is expensive.”
“If a stock's trading on over 25 times earnings for a 1% increase in the discount rate, it needs almost over a 15% increase in earnings to keep the same fair value.”
Host
Guest
Tobias Bucks
person
Ausbill Investment Management
organization
Mueller Industries
organization
NKT
organization
US
place
Europe
place
Iran
place
Japan
place
China
place
Viola Private Wealth
organization
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