2317 - Are these pitchers for real?
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In this episode of Fantasy Baseball from Prospect361.com, hosts Tim and Charissa dive into a deep analysis of several young pitchers who have defied expectations with strong early-season performances. They examine Parker Messick, Jeffrey Springs, Emerson Hancock, Sandy Alcantara, Drew Rasmussen, Randy Vasquez, Braxton Ashcraft, Bryce Elder, Justin Robleski, and others, assessing whether their current success is sustainable or a product of short-term luck. The discussion centers on pitch mix, control, expected statistics (xERA), park factors, and long-term potential, with particular emphasis on pitchers who succeed without elite velocity by mastering multiple pitches and command. The hosts express cautious optimism for Messick and Hancock, skepticism about Vasquez and Elder due to unsustainable xERA and high expected batting averages, and highlight the importance of context—especially ballpark effects and team depth—when evaluating fantasy value. Later, they shift to hitter analysis, discussing Jeremiah Jackson’s power surge with the Orioles, the future of prospects like Kobe Mayo, and the looming impact of top young players such as Kevin McGonigal and Connor Griffin. The episode concludes with fantasy advice: targeting Cooper Pratt for a potential call-up despite a slow start, and considering Spencer Arrighetti for strikeout upside despite a high walk rate.
Parker Messick and Emerson Hancock show signs of a new, sustainable baseline with elite pitch mix and control, even without high velocity.
Pitchers like Randy Vasquez and Bryce Elder are likely due for significant ERA regression based on high expected batting averages and unsustainable results.
Park factors matter: Cleveland and Seattle are more pitcher-friendly than Sacramento or Los Angeles, impacting fantasy value.
A strong pitch arsenal (5+ pitches with 10%+ usage) can compensate for lack of velocity, as seen with Messick and Hancock.
Young hitters like Cooper Pratt may get a call-up due to team needs and contract extensions, even if their current stats are poor.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Sponsor Intro: Shopify for Entrepreneurs
Charissa introduces Shopify as a reliable, easy-to-use platform for entrepreneurs, emphasizing its seamless integration and time-saving benefits. She shares her personal experience using Shopify since day one and encourages listeners to test it with a €1/month trial.
Parker Messick: The Pitching Breakout
“You don't have to throw the ball 98 miles an hour, okay? The fact that you can is not a bad thing. It's a good thing, but if you're... throwing the ball 98 miles an hour and you've only got two pitches, are you better or worse off than a pitcher who is throwing above average five different pitches with good control?”
Jeffrey Springs & Emerson Hancock: The New Baseline?
“If I'm looking at comparing the two, I definitely want Messick over Springs. I would agree. Oh yeah. Simply because half of his games are going to be in that band box. And at some point in time, the 91 mile an hour fastball. Hey, I would rather have Parker Messick's home starts in Cleveland than Jeffrey Spriggs' home starts in Sacramento.”
Sandy Alcantara & Drew Rasmussen: Reclaiming Form
The hosts assess Sandy Alcantara’s return to top-tier form, citing improved control and a strong changeup. Drew Rasmussen is praised for consistency and durability, with a projected 2.70 ERA if he stays healthy and maintains his K-rate.
Randy Vasquez, Ashcraft & Elder: Caution Ahead
“There's going to be a correction coming. And you combine that with the fact that he's 91 mile an hour fast, yeah, there is going to be a correction. I'm predicting an ERA closer to four by the end of the year.”
“I mean, that guy's got all the tools in the world. It's going to be massive big boy power. I mean, I'm kind of with Tim. You can go one to five, five to one and guess right. It's just remarkable the talent these five kids have got.”
“You don't have to throw the ball 98 miles an hour, okay? The fact that you can is not a bad thing. It's a good thing, but if you're... throwing the ball 98 miles an hour and you've only got two pitches, are you better or worse off than a pitcher who is throwing above average five different pitches with good control?”
“If I'm looking at comparing the two, I definitely want Messick over Springs. I would agree. Oh yeah. Simply because half of his games are going to be in that band box. And at some point in time, the 91 mile an hour fastball. Hey, I would rather have Parker Messick's home starts in Cleveland than Jeffrey Spriggs' home starts in Sacramento.”
Hosts
Parker Messick
person
Jeffrey Springs
person
Kobe Mayo
person
Shopify
brand
Cooper Pratt
person
Emerson Hancock
person
Kevin McGonigal
person
Connor Griffin
person
Jeremiah Jackson
person
Sandy Alcantara
person
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2316 - Waiver Wire - April 12, 2026
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