Can a Mexican cartel stronghold host the World Cup?

Guadalajara, Mexico—a city at the heart of the Jalisco New Generation cartel's territory—is set to host World Cup matches despite deep security concerns. The Financial Times explores whether a region with entrenched cartel control can safely welcome global fans. Kira Nugent reports from Guadalajara, where the city’s leafy, tourist-friendly vibe contrasts sharply with its violent past, including deadly protests after the cartel leader’s death. Yet officials and experts argue that cartels have no incentive to disrupt the tournament—attacking tourists would destroy their illicit revenue streams from drugs, prostitution, and contraband. The Mexican government is deploying nearly 100,000 extra security forces, and past events like the 2011 Pan American Games and regular international book fairs suggest the city can manage large-scale events. Meanwhile, the World Cup is also reshaping the betting landscape, with prediction markets like Polymarket and CallSheet challenging traditional bookmakers by offering derivative-style bets that bypass state gambling bans. These platforms are already seeing nearly $1.5 billion in World Cup-related wagers—marking a historic shift in how fans engage with the tournament beyond the pitch.