What lessons will China, India and other Asian nations draw from the Iran war?

The war in Iran and the Gulf has triggered a seismic shift in Asia’s geopolitical calculus, exposing deep vulnerabilities in energy, trade, and regional stability. While China and India have largely stayed on the sidelines despite their strategic ties to the region, Pakistan has unexpectedly emerged as a key mediator—driven by both national interest and personal ties to the Trump administration. Yet, as the U.S. pivots toward the Middle East, Asian nations are confronting a growing fear: the erosion of American reliability and the absence of a credible alternative global leader. Southeast Asia, in particular, is being forced to confront the limits of multilateralism, with ASEAN calling for greater regional integration as a shield against external shocks. Meanwhile, Taiwan is grappling with the dual threats of Chinese coercion and U.S. distraction, while smaller states are quietly studying asymmetric tactics from Iran and Ukraine as models for survival. The crisis reveals a troubling normalization of war across Asia, where conflicts are no longer isolated flashpoints but part of a broader, fragmented order. Most damningly, the BRICS and other global south coalitions have proven hollow when tested by real-world aggression, exposing the gap between rhetoric and action among rising powers.