Big Ten & SEC Circle Games + Teams I’m Doubting

Josh Pate delivers a high-stakes, weather-interrupted deep dive into the 2026 college football season, blending bold predictions with unflinching honesty about team doubts. The episode opens with a dramatic storm looming over Nashville, mirroring the tension in the sport’s most volatile programs. Pate identifies LSU vs. Ole Miss in Week 3 and Florida vs. Auburn as defining SEC matchups, but warns that LSU’s playoff hopes are fragile due to injury concerns and a shaky quarterback situation. He highlights Georgia vs. Alabama in Week 6 as the most consequential game in the SEC over the past decade, noting the near-total dominance of those two programs in national championships. In the Big Ten, he calls Oregon vs. USC in Week 4 a pivotal moment for both teams’ playoff credibility, especially after Oregon’s recent blowouts by Indiana and Ohio State. He also flags Ohio State vs. Indiana in Week 7 as the biggest home game in Indiana history, testing whether their transfer portal class can sustain success. The episode’s most provocative moment comes with Florida State: Pate reveals that if FSU played Florida’s schedule, their projected win total would drop from 6.5 to 4.5—second lowest in the SEC—citing a lack of recruiting foundation and a quarterback situation with no clear leader. He argues that FSU’s overreliance on the transfer portal has backfired, turning them into a cautionary tale.