Bold Predictions Return + CFB Truths From NFL Draft
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Josh Pate delivers a blistering, truth-telling episode of his College Football Show, using the 2026 NFL Draft as a litmus test for the current state of college football. He argues that the draft reveals a stark reality: the SEC and Big Ten are now the only two conferences with true depth, while the G5 has been hollowed out by the transfer portal and NIL, making the current playoff structure illogical from a competitive standpoint. Pate calls out the 'parody myth' that more teams have a shot at a title, exposing instead a talent funneling to the top tier—48% of this year’s draft picks transferred, and 39 former G6 players now play at Power 4 schools. He warns this erodes fan loyalty, romanticism, and long-term investment in programs. The episode also features bold predictions, including a 10/12 repeat playoff team scenario and a 10-boldness pick that Florida State wins the national championship. Pate closes with a sobering assessment of Wisconsin’s decline under Luke Fickle, arguing that trying to force a 'great' identity on a steady program failed, and that rebuilding is now necessary. The episode is a call to confront uncomfortable truths about college football’s evolution.
48% of NFL draft picks in 2026 transferred during college—up from 82 to 123 in two years, signaling a crisis in player loyalty and long-term fan investment.
The SEC set a record with 87 draft picks, proving it’s the deepest conference top-to-bottom, while the G5 is now a talent feeder for Power 4 schools.
The idea that 'more teams have a shot' at a title is a myth—only 74 FBS schools had players drafted, the lowest since 1938, proving talent is concentrated at the top.
The current playoff structure is illogical: pretending 138 teams are competing on equal footing is absurd when only the SEC and Big Ten have sustained depth.
Wisconsin’s decline under Luke Fickle proves that changing a program’s identity overnight fails—especially when you dismantle a successful, steady model.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The NFL Draft as Truth Serum
“The only argument from a competitive logic standpoint that I ever get on this is, well, how could you ever have room for an 07-08 Boise if you put the G5 at their own level? How could you ever have room for like a 2017 UCF? How will you ever know if they don't have their shot? Those don't exist anymore. They don't exist anymore.”
The G5 Collapse and the Transfer Portal Crisis
“48% of all draft picks in this past draft class transferred. That total has jumped from 82 to 123 in two years. I sure do hope that number's peaked. I'm not even going down the rabbit hole of what is right and wrong... I'm just talking about what I think is in the greater overall interest of college football.”
The NFL’s One-Sided Relationship with College Football
Pate argues that college football develops, markets, and trains NFL talent at no cost, while the NFL does nothing to support college football—especially in scheduling and playoff expansion.
Clemson’s Underachievement and the Illusion of Talent
Despite nine players drafted and five in the first three rounds, Pate struggles to feel hopeful for Clemson due to the team’s failure to meet preseason expectations, suggesting the talent was real but the execution wasn’t.
Spring Game Takeaways: Oregon, Penn State, Notre Dame, Indiana
Pate breaks down spring games, highlighting Oregon’s deep pass-catching and defensive line, Penn State’s offensive acclimation, Notre Dame’s running back depth, and Indiana’s strong roster despite a late spring game.
“It failed. Now they find themselves in year four up there in the process of like a rebuild or an overhaul or a retooling and all they're trying to do in the grand scheme of things is get back to what it always was.”
“48 of all draft picks in this past draft class transferred. That total has jumped from 82 to 123 in two years. I sure do hope that number's peaked. I'm not even going down the rabbit hole of what is right and wrong, and what rights players should have, and what rights they shouldn't have, and what the NCAA”
“The NFL enjoys that. And what do they do? What do they do? Do they send thank you cards? Do they bend over backwards to help college football out? No, no. on everything they can encroach on.”
Host
Guests
josh pate
person
wisconsin
other
college football playoff
other
jesse
person
luke fickle
person
texas
other
arch manning
person
nfl
organization
south carolina
other
cincinnati
other
Mike Elko joins Josh Pate - Pate Speaker Series
Josh Pate's College Football Show • 32m • 3/31/2026
Kalen DeBoer joins Josh Pate - Pate State Speaker Series
Josh Pate's College Football Show • 38m • 4/3/2026
CFP Odds Reaction + Bama Behind The Scenes & Ryan Day Draft Idea
Josh Pate's College Football Show • 59m • 4/10/2026
CFB & The Masters Lessons Learned + Spring Game Reactions
Josh Pate's College Football Show • 50m • 4/13/2026
James Franklin joins Josh Pate - Pate State Speaker Series
Josh Pate's College Football Show • 35m • 4/14/2026
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