EP 223 | Leveraging Injury Information for Fantasy Baseball w/ Will Carroll

In this deep-dive episode of Launch Angle, hosts Rob Diem and Rob Silver welcome Will Carroll, a veteran baseball analyst and founder of the Substack 'Under the Knife,' to discuss the critical role of injury intelligence in fantasy baseball. Carroll, with 24 years of experience, emphasizes that injury data is one of the most underutilized yet powerful tools in fantasy research. He breaks down how context—beyond simple injury reports—such as player physiology, rehab progress, and comparative case studies (e.g., comparing Luis Robert to Andre Ethier) can reveal actionable insights. The conversation explores how fantasy managers should interpret velocity spikes, changes in release point, and physical appearance (like weight loss) as red flags or signals. Carroll also discusses the limitations of technology, the art of MRI interpretation, and the importance of trusting trusted sources over public PR. He stresses that injury history is the strongest predictor of future risk, distinguishing between quirky, one-off injuries and systemic, chronic issues like those seen in Royce Lewis. The episode closes with a reflection on the human side of players—beyond stats—and the evolving landscape of sports science in baseball. Key takeaways include: (1) Use injury context, not just headlines, to evaluate player availability and performance; (2) Compare players with similar injuries using historical data to forecast recovery; (3) Monitor physical changes like weight loss or altered mechanics as early warning signs; (4) Understand that even elite teams can’t perfectly predict injuries, so fantasy managers must rely on deep research and trusted sources; (5) Recognize that players are human—emotional, psychological, and physical factors impact performance; (6) Don’t overvalue training facilities like Driveline as a silver bullet; (7) Be skeptical of public injury timelines and prioritize direct sources; (8) Treat injury history as the most predictive factor, especially for pitchers and high-impact hitters. The overall tone is informative, insightful, and optimistic about the power of data-driven decision-making in fantasy sports.