Episode 53: Is the S&P Rally A Bull Trap? With Dale Pinkert

The S&P 500's recent rally may be a dangerous bull trap, according to Dale Pinkert, who warns that technical divergences—especially on the four-hour charts—signal a failing rally. Despite strong market sentiment and a rebound in bonds, Pinkert sees signs of distribution at the top, with key leaders like semiconductors and Bitcoin failing to make new highs. He argues that the market’s inability to confirm a new high on the S&P 500, combined with a confirmed bearish divergence, suggests a potential double top and a coming pullback to 7,100—possibly even down to 6,900. He believes this could be the last good buying opportunity before a final melt-up, but only if the market breaks through resistance. Meanwhile, he remains bearish on gold, targeting 3,800, and skeptical of new IPOs like SpaceX, warning they could drain liquidity and favor early investors over retail. The episode also explores geopolitical risks, including a potential multipolar world order, and the fragility of consumer sentiment despite strong tech performance. Pinkert emphasizes that traders must respect their emotional state, especially during personal hardship, reminding listeners that markets will always be there when they’re ready. The episode underscores a critical tension: the market is behaving like it’s in a bull phase, but the underlying technicals suggest a top is forming.