Why do some companies wait to IPO?

The podcast explores a pivotal shift in corporate behavior: why some of the world's most powerful tech companies—like SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic—are delaying their IPOs despite being years old and generating billions in revenue. Unlike the dot-com era, when startups went public at a fraction of their maturity, today’s giants are staying private longer to protect their business models, avoid regulatory scrutiny, and concentrate wealth among private investors. This trend has created a surge in demand for pre-IPO shares on secondary markets, with extreme cases like an investment banker trading his home for Anthropic stock. At the same time, the episode dives into the geopolitical undercurrents fueling this economic moment, particularly the trade war between the U.S. and China. Critical materials like tungsten—essential for defense, energy, and manufacturing—are now subject to export controls and supply shocks, with China controlling 80% of global supply. These dynamics are not just about tariffs but about strategic weaponization of trade, forcing nations to rethink industrial policy, stockpile resources, and develop domestic alternatives. The episode concludes with a conversation about the book *How to Win a Trade War*, which argues that while trade wars are inevitable, they can be managed with pragmatism, preparation, and long-term planning—offering cautious optimism in an unstable global economy.