War, Oil and Approval: Trump’s Polling Test

President Trump's decision to authorize military strikes on Iran has triggered a quiet but significant erosion in his approval rating, despite his campaign promise to end wars. While his core MAGA base remains largely supportive, polling reveals a troubling dip in loyalty—particularly among key conservative figures like Tucker Carlson and Marjorie Taylor Greene—suggesting growing internal fractures. The war's economic fallout, including gasoline prices breaching $4 per gallon for the first time since 2022, is amplifying public frustration over inflation and affordability, issues already undermining Trump’s standing. As the conflict drags into its second month, analysts warn that prolonged military commitment could further erode support, especially if no clear victory emerges. Even Trump’s erratic social media behavior—marked by late-night, expletive-laden rants—has begun to raise mainstream concerns about his mental fitness, a rare critique from non-partisan observers. With cabinet officials like Pete Hegseth and Kristi Noem drawing low approval, there are no clear bright spots in his administration. Early polling suggests a competitive midterms landscape, with Democrats gaining a real shot at reclaiming the House and the Senate becoming a battleground for the first time in years.