Weekend Edition: Beyond the Blockade. The Real-World Cost of the War.

In this week's Weekend Edition of NAB Morning Call, host Phil Dobby speaks with Neil Atkinson, a former head of oil markets at the International Energy Agency and current energy analyst based in Paris. The discussion centers on the ongoing crisis in the Strait of Hormuz, where a de facto blockade has disrupted global oil flows, driving prices to $140–$150 per barrel for physical crude—far above the $80–$100 futures price expectations. Atkinson argues that the real-world physical market reflects deeper geopolitical tensions, with no immediate resolution in sight, making it impossible to predict whether prices will fall or continue rising. He warns that the worst may still be ahead, especially as Gulf producers face massive infrastructure damage and a prolonged recovery period. While the U.S. shale industry is not ramping up production due to long-term strategic planning and shareholder demands, major oil companies like BP and Shell are profiting from higher prices and are shifting back to core fossil fuel operations, abandoning previous clean energy commitments. The episode highlights the disproportionate impact on developing nations—such as India and Southeast Asian countries—facing fuel rationing and energy insecurity, while wealthier nations like Germany and France remain vulnerable due to energy dependency and policy missteps. Atkinson also discusses the UAE’s exit from OPEC, a strategic move to operate like a global energy trader rather than a cartel member, which could reshape global oil dynamics. The episode concludes with a sobering outlook: the world remains deeply reliant on fossil fuels, with no viable mass-market alternatives in transport, shipping, aviation, or petrochemicals, meaning energy crises like this will continue to have severe economic and human costs.