Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China

In this episode of Pekingology, host Henrietta Levin interviews Dr. Aik Fryman, Hoover Fellow at Stanford and author of 'Defending Taiwan: A Strategy to Prevent War with China.' The discussion centers on Beijing's strategic calculus regarding Taiwan, emphasizing that President Xi Jinping views reunification not just as a military objective but as the keystone of his broader vision for China's national rejuvenation by 2049. Fryman argues that while Xi has the ambition and tools to pursue reunification by force, he is fundamentally an optimist who believes historical momentum favors China’s rise, making patience a rational strategy. The real danger lies not in a sudden invasion but in Beijing’s incremental 'gray zone' coercion—economic pressure, maritime encirclement, and political subversion—that could erode Taiwan’s autonomy without triggering a full-scale war. Fryman’s core argument is that the U.S. must abandon fragmented, reactive policies in favor of an integrated deterrence strategy that combines military, economic, diplomatic, and intelligence tools. He advocates for 'structured ambiguity'—proportional pushback across domains to deter escalation—while preparing a bold, bipartisan vision for a post-crisis global economic order that would isolate China’s growth model even if it wins Taiwan. The episode concludes with a call to action: now, while the window remains open, the U.S. and its allies must begin crafting a shared vision for a resilient, rules-based international system that can withstand a Taiwan crisis without collapsing into chaos.