Ep 340: What strategy makes the most profit? -with Rob Flux, Oliver Jackson, Hayden Warren, & Todd Sloan

This episode of Pizza and Property dives deep into the profitability of various property development strategies, using two adjacent properties in Geelong as a case study. Host Todd Sloan and guests Rob Flux, Oliver Jackson, Hayden Warren, and Todd Sloan analyze multiple scenarios—granny flat construction, land subdivision, townhouse development, and dual occupancy—highlighting that just because a property is developable doesn’t mean it’s profitable. Rob Flux introduces his 'rapid elimination method,' a 10-minute screening process to quickly rule out deals based on zoning, access, easements, and flood overlays. Despite favorable zoning and potential for development, multiple red flags emerge: poor house condition, tight access due to trees and power poles, high construction and holding costs, and weak land sales demand. Hayden Warren presents a one-to-two lot subdivision strategy, building a new home in the rear while retaining the front property, but even this faces hurdles like marginal side access, acoustic reports, and traffic plans. The episode concludes with a powerful takeaway: 'Just because it’s developable doesn’t mean it’s profitable.' The hosts emphasize the importance of rigorous due diligence, worst-case scenario modeling, and choosing strategies that offer strong returns and capital recycling. Key takeaways include: 1) Always use a rapid elimination framework to filter out deals early; 2) Never assume development potential equals profitability—run detailed feasibility models; 3) Prioritize capital recycling by designing deals that return your investment quickly; 4) Manage tenant relationships proactively, especially during renovations; 5) Account for all hidden costs like acoustic reports, traffic plans, and council fees. The episode underscores that successful development isn't about ambition—it's about precision, patience, and ruthless financial discipline.