Episode 2,704 - What Do the Data & Analytics Say About Which Offensive Players the Jets Should Draft? w/Jim Cobern

Play Like A Jet: New York Jets43mApril 17, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

The 2026 NFL Draft is shaping up to be a weak class at offensive skill positions, but a strong one on defense — a reality that could dramatically reshape the New York Jets' draft strategy. Jim Cobern of All Pro Football Data argues that while quarterback prospects are shallow, Fernando Mendoza stands out as the only quarterback with elite data metrics, including 90th percentile in expected value and red zone efficiency. Yet even he falls short of generational status. Cobern dismisses Ty Simpson as a first-round prospect, noting his third-down efficiency at just 61st percentile — a level historically associated with failed starters. On the ground, Jeremiah Love is the only running back with a 99th percentile production profile, but the rest of the class lacks elite talent. The wide receiver class is deep but not dominant, with Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon offering strong data despite injury concerns or off-field questions. Tight ends are dominated by 'move' types like Sadiq, with few true 'full-size' threats. The offensive line, however, is where the Jets could find value — especially at center and guard, with Parker Brailsford and Emmanuel Pregnon standing out. Cobern’s core recommendation? Load up on defense early — targeting edge rushers like David Bailey and safeties like Dillon Theenam — then fill out the offensive line in rounds two and three.

Key Takeaways
1

Fernando Mendoza is the only quarterback in the 2026 class with 90th percentile data in expected value and red zone efficiency — but not a generational prospect.

2

Ty Simpson’s third-down efficiency (61st percentile) is historically low for future starters; he’s better suited for Day 3.

3

Jeremiah Love is the only running back with a 99th percentile production profile; the rest of the class lacks elite talent.

4

The wide receiver class is deep but not elite — Jordan Tyson and Makai Lemon lead in data, despite injury or interview concerns.

5

Parker Brailsford is the top center prospect (99th percentile) based on size, athleticism, and production data.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
3 min

Intro: The Draft Reality Check

Scott Mason opens the episode with a high-energy recap of Jets highlights and introduces Jim Cobern, founder of All Pro Football Data, setting the stage for a data-driven analysis of the 2026 NFL Draft.

2:30
3 min

Quarterback Class: Mendoza Stands Alone

Ty Simpson is not the second best quarterback in this draft class. He's the fourth best quarterback in this draft class where if he was in any other draft class, he would most likely be sort of a day three selection.

Highlight
5:00
3 min

Running Backs: One Elite, Many Solid

Jeremiah Love, I think he's the only running back in this class that sort of has a 99 percentile overall production, uh, traits.

Highlight
7:30
3 min

Wide Receivers: Depth Over Elite

I really don't see the hype with him as a top 10 player in this particular draft class other than maybe the weakness of it in terms of offensive positions especially skilled position players.

Highlight
10:00
3 min

Tight Ends: Move Types Dominate

Sadiq is the top tight end, but Cobern notes the class lacks full-size, elite producers. He highlights Max Clare and Sam Rouge as potential bargains, with most prospects being 'move' tight ends.

High-Impact Quotes
Ty Simpson is not the second best quarterback in this draft class. He's the fourth best quarterback in this draft class where if he was in any other draft class, he would most likely be sort of a day three selection.
Jim Cobern5:53
Viral: 85.0
Brailsford. He is currently my top safe center. Excuse me, almost said safety, but top center based on his data here at 99 percentile overall.
Jim Cobern20:36
Viral: 82.0
Jeremiah Love, I think he's the only running back in this class that sort of has a 99 percentile overall production, uh, traits.
Jim Cobern10:22
Viral: 78.0
Speakers

Host

Scott Mason

Guest

Jim Cobern
Topics Discussed
2026 nfl draft95%data analytics in football92%offensive line draft90%draft strategy88%quarterback class85%wide receiver draft82%running back prospects80%tight end class75%
People & Brands

New York Jets

organization

15xNeutral

Jim Cobern

person

12xPositive

Scott Mason

person

10xNeutral

Fernando Mendoza

person

8xNeutral

Ty Simpson

person

7xNegative

All Pro Football Data

organization

6xPositive

Parker Brailsford

person

5xPositive

Jeremiah Love

person

5xPositive

Makai Lemon

person

5xPositive

Jordan Tyson

person

4xPositive

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