Labour’s mistakes: is it too late to turn things around?

In this episode of Politics Weekly UK, host Kieran Cooke interviews Professor Rob Ford, a political scientist and author of the latest volume in his acclaimed election series, to dissect Labour's post-2024 election trajectory and the deeper fractures in UK politics. Ford challenges the widely held narrative that Labour’s victory was driven by winning back 'hero voters'—the socially conservative, economically insecure, pro-Brexit working-class voters who shifted from Labour to Tory in 2019 and supposedly returned in 2024. Instead, he argues that Labour’s gains were largely due to the collapse of the Conservatives, not a successful campaign strategy. The data shows Labour’s campaign was in decline throughout the six-week period, while Reform UK and the Greens gained momentum, reflecting a broader voter alienation from the political class. Ford contends that Labour’s strategy of ruling out tax increases to win credibility backfired, as voters already expected tax rises and didn’t care—yet Labour’s self-imposed constraints hampered their ability to deliver promised change. The episode also explores the enduring power of Brexit as a political fault line, with the UK now divided into two ideological blocs: a 'leave' and a 'remain' block. Despite Labour’s attempts to bridge this divide, their efforts have failed, with Starmer’s approval ratings at historic lows. Ford warns that without a leadership change, Labour may not recover. Meanwhile, Reform UK appears to be hitting a polling ceiling, but their potential to win a majority under first-past-the-post remains highly sensitive to small shifts in vote share. The Gorton and Denton by-election is presented as a microcosm of these trends, where a well-organized progressive vote—driven by Muslim communities and young graduates—defeated Labour, aided by tactical voting and high turnout in a competitive seat. The episode concludes with a sobering assessment: the UK is in uncharted political territory, and the next election could be decided by subtle shifts in voter behavior and leadership dynamics.