How to navigate a crisis: lessons from a chief investment officer

When the weather is beautiful and the sea is quiet, everybody's a good sailor. It's in rough times that you can make a difference—this isn't just a metaphor, it's a professional philosophy for Yves Bonçon, Julius Baer’s Group Chief Investment Officer. With over 30 years of navigating crises from the 1997 Asian crisis to 2008’s financial meltdown and the ongoing US-Iran conflict, Bonçon argues that the most valuable skill isn’t predicting chaos, but responding to it with disciplined, rational clarity. He reveals that even crises you see coming—like the 2008 financial crisis—can surprise you with hidden mechanisms: investment banks had fake AAA-rated subprime bonds on their balance sheets, not because they were unaware, but because departments didn’t talk to each other. This ‘unknown unknown’ is the real danger. Bonçon’s core principle? Don’t stay wrong. If you’re wrong about a market move, reverse it quickly. The best investors don’t predict the future—they manage risk with flexibility, not rigidity. And while emotional reactions are inevitable, the real edge comes from staying rational, especially when others panic. For everyday investors, the lesson isn’t about timing the market, but about understanding the rules of investing, avoiding behavioral traps, and building discipline like following a doctor’s prescription—not gambling with your future. Bonçon also challenges the idea that crises are purely destructive.