The "Middle-Aged Dads" Edition

In this episode of Rational Security, host Scott R. Anderson and colleagues Mike Feinberg and Dana Stuster dissect three major national security developments: the Trump administration's high-stakes summit with China, the stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations over the Strait of Hormuz, and a controversial CIA covert assassination campaign in Mexico targeting cartel members. The discussion reveals deep concern over the administration’s transactional foreign policy, particularly its willingness to sacrifice long-term strategic interests—like Taiwan’s security—for short-term economic gains. The China summit is framed as a potential pivot toward a 'spheres of influence' model, raising alarms about U.S. credibility in East Asia. On Iran, the hosts express skepticism about the military campaign’s effectiveness, noting that key objectives like destroying missile infrastructure have failed, while economic and geopolitical costs are mounting. The Mexico story sparks debate over the legality and ethics of targeted killings, with fears that expanding the Foreign Terrorist Organization (FTO) designation to cartels could erode legal guardrails and damage U.S.-Mexico relations. Throughout, the panel emphasizes a troubling lack of strategic foresight and second-order consequence analysis in current policy decisions.