2026-04-06 Debt, Deflation & the Coming Reset: Are We Already in a Recession?

In this episode of RLA Radio, host Dennis Tubergen and returning guest Carl Denninger delve into the looming economic crisis driven by unsustainable private sector debt in the United States, now at 200% of GDP—50% higher than during the Great Depression. They argue that this level of debt creates a structural precondition for economic collapse, as defaults will inevitably lead to widespread deflationary pressure. Despite inflationary headwinds from energy shocks like the Iran conflict and rising commodity costs, the duo warns of a stagflationary trap: rising consumer prices combined with declining asset values, exacerbated by the Federal Reserve’s inability to cut rates due to fiscal deficits. The private credit market is already showing signs of stress, with major funds like BlackRock’s HPS Corporate Lending Fund and Blackstone’s BCRED imposing redemption caps or issuing IOUs, echoing early warning signs from 2007. Denninger emphasizes that the Fed cannot indefinitely finance the federal deficit through QE without triggering hyperinflation, and that political solutions are unlikely given the scale of unfunded liabilities, especially in Medicare. The episode concludes with a call to action for listeners to reassess their investment strategies, particularly those nearing retirement, and consider alternatives like revenue-sourcing planning to protect wealth in turbulent times.