Squiz Shortcuts: The fight against illegal tobacco

Squiz Today12mApril 30, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

This Squiz Shortcuts episode investigates the growing crisis of illegal tobacco and nicotine products in Australia, revealing that organised crime is on track to dominate the market by 2030. With legal cigarettes now costing over $50 per pack—more than half of which is tax—smokers are increasingly turning to cheaper, smuggled alternatives sold under the counter. These products, often counterfeit or foreign brands, are imported illegally and evade billions in tax revenue. The black market is now estimated at $10 billion annually, with major retailers reporting up to 80% drops in cigarette sales. While health authorities credit rising taxes for reducing smoking rates, national sewage data suggests nicotine use remains high, particularly among youth via vapes. Despite efforts to restrict vape sales to pharmacies, most are still obtained illegally. States like Victoria have responded with strict licensing and heavy penalties, but federal action remains stalled. The episode also features a sponsor segment on eGuarantee, a digital lease bond platform designed to free up $10 billion tied in traditional bank guarantees for commercial leases.

Key Takeaways
1

Illegal tobacco and vape products are now worth an estimated $10 billion annually in Australia, driven by high legal prices and weak enforcement.

2

Organised crime is poised to supply nearly all tobacco and nicotine products by 2030, threatening public health and government revenue.

3

Retailers like Ampol and Richie's IGA report 80%+ declines in cigarette sales due to the black market, with ripple effects on grocery revenue.

4

The government's tax-driven anti-smoking strategy is being undermined by a shift to illicit products, including vapes, which are also being smuggled in massive numbers.

5

Digital lease bonds from eGuarantee offer a modern alternative to traditional bank guarantees, freeing up $10 billion in idle capital for businesses.

Chapters
0:00
3 min

The Rise of the Illegal Tobacco Trade

The illegal tobacco trade is on track to cross the 70% threshold next year in 2027.

Highlight
2:30
3 min

Why Smokers Turn to Illicit Products

High excise taxes—over half the price of a pack—have made legal cigarettes unaffordable for many, pushing smokers toward cheaper, smuggled alternatives sold under the counter.

5:30
3 min

The Criminal Economy and Black Market Scale

The vast majority of vapers are still sourcing them illegally from convenience and tobacco stores rather than going to a pharmacy.

Highlight
8:30
4 min

Government Response and the Digital Lease Bond Sponsor

States like Victoria have introduced strict licensing and penalties, while the federal government resists tax cuts. The episode concludes with a sponsor segment on eGuarantee’s digital lease bonds freeing up $10 billion in tied-up business capital.

High-Impact Quotes
The illegal tobacco trade is on track to cross the 70% threshold next year in 2027.
Andrew Williams3:10
Viral: 85.0
The vast majority of vapers are still sourcing them illegally from convenience and tobacco stores rather than going to a pharmacy.
Andrew Williams10:01
Viral: 78.0
If they buy these illegally smuggled cigarettes, the government gets nothing at all, zilch.
Alice Dempster7:07
Viral: 75.0
Speakers

Hosts

Alice DempsterAndrew Williams

Guest

Stephen Ellis
Topics Discussed
Illegal Tobacco Trade95%Tobacco Tax and Public Revenue90%Organised Crime in Australia88%Vape Regulation and Black Market85%Retailer Impact and Economic Loss80%Digital Lease Bonds75%Government Policy and Health Strategy70%Border Security and Smuggling68%
People & Brands

Alice Dempster

person

15xNeutral

Andrew Williams

person

14xNeutral

eGuarantee

organization

12xPositive

Stephen Ellis

person

8xPositive

Australian Border Force

organization

5xNeutral

Philip Morris

organization

5xNeutral

Victorian Government

organization

4xPositive

Albanese Government

organization

2xNeutral

British American Tobacco

organization

2xNeutral

Ampol

organization

2xNeutral

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