How predictions took over our lives
We've outsourced our future to prediction machines — from sports betting apps that turn corner kicks into financial gambles, to AI systems that claim to foresee our health, jobs, and even our fate. The result? A society obsessed with control, where every moment is monetized and every decision is framed as a bet. As philosopher Carissa Veliz warns, these aren’t neutral forecasts — they’re power plays disguised as facts, shaping behavior, reinforcing bias, and creating self-fulfilling prophecies. When insurers raise premiums based on AI predictions of poor health, they may actually cause the illness they predicted. When employers use algorithms to screen job applicants, they’re not just assessing risk — they’re building a future that’s harder to escape. Yet we’re not powerless. Writer Simone Stoltsoff shows that embracing uncertainty — not avoiding it — is the real path to agency. By designing small acts of randomness into our lives, we can rebuild our tolerance for the unknown and reclaim the ability to shape our own futures, rather than passively waiting for a prediction to define us.
Sports betting has transformed fans from passive viewers into hyper-engaged traders, where corner kicks matter more than wins — a sign of how monetization erodes meaning.
AI predictions aren’t neutral facts; they’re power tools that influence behavior and create self-fulfilling prophecies, especially in high-stakes areas like insurance and hiring.
When decisions are based on predictions rather than facts, people lose the ability to challenge them — creating a Kafkaesque system where no one can prove they’re wrong.
The belief that AI is inevitable is a marketing tactic, not a truth — it’s designed to stop conversation and push people into adopting a future they didn’t choose.
Embracing uncertainty, not avoiding it, is essential to reclaiming agency — small experiments with randomness can train us to thrive in the unknown.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Mystery of the Corner Kick
“They picked the over and they won the over. What Brendan saw with his students watching the World Cup were the early signs of an exploding marketplace.”
The Rise of Sports Betting and Prediction Markets
From illegal bookies to legalized sports betting, the 2018 Supreme Court decision opened the floodgates. In just six years, sports betting revenue exploded from $5 billion to $150 billion, mostly online. The experience of watching sports has changed — fans are now active traders, not passive observers.
The Sports Fan as Day Trader
Brendan Dwyer’s research shows that the most engaged sports bettors aren’t just fans — they’re part spectator, part day trader. The game is no longer about the scoreboard; it’s about open bets, perpetual engagement, and the fusion of loyalty, attention, and money.
The Illusion of Control and the Risk of Overconfidence
Young sports bettors, especially 18-24-year-olds, are driven by overconfidence and impulsivity. They believe they can beat the odds, not because of skill, but because they think they know more than the system — a dangerous mix when money is involved.
Prediction as Power, Not Knowledge
“Predictions are never facts. They can be educated guesses, they can be power plays, they can be wishful thinking, they can be estimates. But the future is unwritten and facts belong to the past.”
“And one very basic reason for why they're not is that Predictions are never facts. They can be educated guesses, they can be power plays, they can be wishful thinking, they can be estimates. But the future is unwritten and facts belong to the past.”
“When a tech executive says that in the future we will use AI for everything and everywhere, he's trying to get you to act in a way that will fulfill his vision of the future.”
“They picked the over and they won the over. What Brendan saw with his students watching the World Cup were the early signs of an exploding marketplace.”
Host
Guests
Brendan Dwyer
person
Carissa Veliz
person
Simone Stoltsoff
person
NPR
organization
Virginia Commonwealth University
organization
Metaverse
product
Supreme Court
organization
Mark Zuckerberg
person
Kafka's The Trial
book
FIFA World Cup
other
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