How predictions took over our lives

TED Radio Hour49mJune 12, 2026
AI-Generated Summary

We've outsourced our future to prediction machines — from sports betting apps that turn corner kicks into financial gambles, to AI systems that claim to foresee our health, jobs, and even our fate. The result? A society obsessed with control, where every moment is monetized and every decision is framed as a bet. As philosopher Carissa Veliz warns, these aren’t neutral forecasts — they’re power plays disguised as facts, shaping behavior, reinforcing bias, and creating self-fulfilling prophecies. When insurers raise premiums based on AI predictions of poor health, they may actually cause the illness they predicted. When employers use algorithms to screen job applicants, they’re not just assessing risk — they’re building a future that’s harder to escape. Yet we’re not powerless. Writer Simone Stoltsoff shows that embracing uncertainty — not avoiding it — is the real path to agency. By designing small acts of randomness into our lives, we can rebuild our tolerance for the unknown and reclaim the ability to shape our own futures, rather than passively waiting for a prediction to define us.

Key Takeaways
1

Sports betting has transformed fans from passive viewers into hyper-engaged traders, where corner kicks matter more than wins — a sign of how monetization erodes meaning.

2

AI predictions aren’t neutral facts; they’re power tools that influence behavior and create self-fulfilling prophecies, especially in high-stakes areas like insurance and hiring.

3

When decisions are based on predictions rather than facts, people lose the ability to challenge them — creating a Kafkaesque system where no one can prove they’re wrong.

4

The belief that AI is inevitable is a marketing tactic, not a truth — it’s designed to stop conversation and push people into adopting a future they didn’t choose.

5

Embracing uncertainty, not avoiding it, is essential to reclaiming agency — small experiments with randomness can train us to thrive in the unknown.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
1 min

The Mystery of the Corner Kick

They picked the over and they won the over. What Brendan saw with his students watching the World Cup were the early signs of an exploding marketplace.

Highlight
1:10
3 min

The Rise of Sports Betting and Prediction Markets

From illegal bookies to legalized sports betting, the 2018 Supreme Court decision opened the floodgates. In just six years, sports betting revenue exploded from $5 billion to $150 billion, mostly online. The experience of watching sports has changed — fans are now active traders, not passive observers.

4:35
4 min

The Sports Fan as Day Trader

Brendan Dwyer’s research shows that the most engaged sports bettors aren’t just fans — they’re part spectator, part day trader. The game is no longer about the scoreboard; it’s about open bets, perpetual engagement, and the fusion of loyalty, attention, and money.

8:24
5 min

The Illusion of Control and the Risk of Overconfidence

Young sports bettors, especially 18-24-year-olds, are driven by overconfidence and impulsivity. They believe they can beat the odds, not because of skill, but because they think they know more than the system — a dangerous mix when money is involved.

12:59
9 min

Prediction as Power, Not Knowledge

Predictions are never facts. They can be educated guesses, they can be power plays, they can be wishful thinking, they can be estimates. But the future is unwritten and facts belong to the past.

Highlight
High-Impact Quotes
And one very basic reason for why they're not is that Predictions are never facts. They can be educated guesses, they can be power plays, they can be wishful thinking, they can be estimates. But the future is unwritten and facts belong to the past.
Carissa Veliz25:24
When a tech executive says that in the future we will use AI for everything and everywhere, he's trying to get you to act in a way that will fulfill his vision of the future.
Carissa Veliz34:17
They picked the over and they won the over. What Brendan saw with his students watching the World Cup were the early signs of an exploding marketplace.
Brendan Dwyer3:25
Speakers

Host

Manoush Zomorodi

Guests

Brendan DwyerCarissa VelizSimone Stoltsoff
Topics Discussed
sports betting95%artificial intelligence92%prediction markets90%algorithmic bias88%uncertainty and agency87%self-fulfilling prophecy85%AI ethics83%digital surveillance75%
People & Brands

Brendan Dwyer

person

12xNeutral

Carissa Veliz

person

10xPositive

Simone Stoltsoff

person

8xPositive

NPR

organization

3xNeutral

Virginia Commonwealth University

organization

3xNeutral

Metaverse

product

2xNeutral

Supreme Court

organization

2xNeutral

Mark Zuckerberg

person

2xNeutral

Kafka's The Trial

book

2xNeutral

FIFA World Cup

other

2xNeutral

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