Josh Barro and Paige Cognetti: The World Is Going to Blame Trump

In this episode of The Bulwark, hosts Tim Miller and Josh Barro dissect the escalating crisis following Donald Trump's unprovoked military action in Iran, which has triggered a global oil shock and threatens to spark a worldwide recession. Barro, a consistent critic of Trump, argues the war is a reckless improvisation with no coherent strategy, marked by contradictory statements and a failure to prepare—such as not refilling the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. He highlights the absurdity of Trump’s claim that Iran’s new president requested a ceasefire, calling it a fabrication. The episode underscores how the war is already causing severe economic consequences: soaring gasoline prices, disrupted air travel, and inflationary pressures, with the potential for stagflation. Barro and Miller also critique the political fallout, noting that Trump’s attempt to deflect blame onto Europe or Israel will fail, as voters will hold him accountable for rising costs. The conversation shifts to broader systemic issues, including the rise of 'sloppulism'—adolescent policymaking with gimmicky tax cuts that ignore fiscal reality—and the Democratic Party’s struggle to balance populism with governance. Later, the focus turns to Paige Cognetti, the independent mayor of Scranton, running against Trump-endorsed Congressman Rob Bresnahan. Cognetti, a reformer with a track record of fighting corruption, emphasizes transparency, accountability, and practical governance, calling out her opponent’s stock trading while advocating for stronger ethics rules in Congress. She stresses that voters in working-class districts like hers care more about tangible results than ideological purity, and she champions pragmatic reform over performative politics.