It’s a Wave Not a Bubble, Nvidia Preview, Google’s I/O Highlights, Investing in Space Stocks

The Compound and Friends1h 10mMay 20, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

The hosts argue that the current AI-driven tech boom is not a bubble but a sustained 'wave' of infrastructure investment, contrasting it sharply with the dot-com bubble of 1999. They emphasize that unlike past speculative manias fueled by IPOs and false narratives, today's spending is backed by cash-rich hyperscalers like Alphabet and BlackRock, who are rapidly deploying capital into data centers and AI infrastructure. This spending is not driven by short-term speculation but by real, structural demand—evidenced by NVIDIA's 80% year-over-year revenue growth, Anthropic's $50 billion run rate, and the physical constraints in semiconductor manufacturing that prevent overproduction. The hosts reject the idea that AI is a passing fad, pointing to the irreversible nature of infrastructure buildouts and the fact that only 10 basis points of the population are currently using AI models—indicating massive untapped demand. They also spotlight space stocks as the next frontier, highlighting Intuitive Machines, AST Space Mobile, and Planet Labs as potential long-term plays, especially if SpaceX files for an IPO. Finally, they explore a contrarian investment thesis: if the AI wave is truly sustainable, the stocks most likely to rebound when sentiment shifts are the ones currently getting crushed—like software and international equities—echoing Michael Burry’s strategy of buying what others are selling.

Key Takeaways
1

The AI boom is a 'wave,' not a 'bubble'—infrastructure buildouts are irreversible and funded by cash-rich hyperscalers, not speculative IPOs.

2

NVIDIA’s 80% YoY revenue growth and Anthropic’s $50B run rate signal structural demand, not short-term hype.

3

Only 10 basis points of the population currently use AI models—indicating massive untapped demand and a long runway for growth.

4

Physical constraints in semiconductor manufacturing (TSMC capacity, wafer shortages) prevent overproduction, making a 'glut' unlikely.

5

Space stocks like Intuitive Machines, AST Space Mobile, and Planet Labs are poised for attention if SpaceX files for an IPO.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
10 min

Opening: Hair Regrowth, AI Agents, and Market Sentiment

The hosts open with a humorous segment on Josh’s PRP treatment for hair regrowth, followed by a sponsor plug for public.com’s AI agents that automate investing tasks. They set the tone with a mix of personal anecdotes and market commentary.

10:00
10 min

NVIDIA Earnings Preview: The 80% Growth Wave

It's a wave, not a bubble. And I wrote down the way I would define these two things so that people understand what I mean.

Highlight
20:00
10 min

Google I/O: The Rise of Always-On AI Agents

The hosts analyze Google’s I/O announcements, focusing on Gemini’s integration across products, the shift to autonomous AI agents, and the ethical implications of AI reading emails and monitoring behavior.

30:00
10 min

The 'Wave' vs. 'Bubble' Debate: A Historical Perspective

The funding for this is coming from internet 1.0 and 2.0 players that are redeploying cashflow.

Highlight
40:00
10 min

Space Stocks: The Next Frontier

I am starting to think that space is going to be the next, next, next.

Highlight
High-Impact Quotes
It's a wave, not a bubble. And I wrote down the way I would define these two things so that people understand what I mean.
Downtown Josh Brown32:07
Viral: 88.0
When the bubble in the AI darlings pops, the money is going to come back into these f***ing disasters.
Downtown Josh Brown59:33
Viral: 85.0
ones. 10 basis points of the population are using these models. I know. And there is a shortage of compute. What happens when it's 5
Michael Batnick36:42
Viral: 78.0
Speakers

Hosts

Downtown Josh BrownMichael Batnick
Topics Discussed
ai infrastructure95%wave vs bubble92%nvidia earnings90%space stocks88%google io85%contrarian investing80%cybersecurity75%elon musk65%
People & Brands

nvidia

organization

35xPositive

downtown josh brown

person

15xNeutral

michael batnick

person

12xNeutral

google

organization

12xNeutral

anthropic

organization

8xPositive

trump

person

8xNeutral

space x

organization

6xPositive

michael burry

person

5xPositive

intuitive machines

organization

4xPositive

public.com

organization

4xPositive

Get the full intelligence

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