Sharp or Square - 2026 NFL DRAFT Betting Picks & Predictions - Ty Simpson, Jeremiyah Love and more
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The Sharper Square podcast dives into the 2026 NFL Draft with a mix of betting analysis, player evaluations, and sharp commentary on team strategies. Hosts Chad Millman and Simon Hunter, joined by draft expert Derek Brown from Fantasy Pros, break down major storylines including the controversial trade of Dexter Lawrence from the Giants to the Bengals, which they critique as a desperate move by two struggling franchises. The central focus is on top prospects like Jeremiah Love, Ty Simpson, and Carson Beck, with intense debate over whether Love’s elite talent justifies a top-five pick despite the historical failure of high-round running backs. The hosts also explore betting markets, noting rapid line movements on players like Casey Concepcion and Spencer Fano, and discuss the impact of new tax rules on gambling losses. They assess team needs, mock drafts, and the potential ripple effects of trades, particularly around the Jets, Bengals, and Seahawks. The episode ends with a look at the AJ Brown trade rumors in Philly, highlighting the emotional stakes and front-office decision-making under pressure.
High-round running backs like Jeremiah Love are polarizing—talented but historically risky picks due to NFL's evolving pass-heavy defenses.
The Dexter Lawrence trade is seen as a desperate, short-term fix by two struggling franchises with poor drafting histories.
Betting markets are volatile and moving fast—especially on players like Ty Simpson and Casey Concepcion—making early action crucial.
Tax rules now require 10% tax on gambling losses, significantly impacting professional bettors’ strategies.
Teams like the Seahawks and Chiefs are likely to address defensive line or offensive line needs in the first round, with strong value at plus odds.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Podcast Promos and Intro
Multiple podcast promotions are aired, including The Clifford Show, NFL Daily, The Away End, Sports Slice, and The Girlfriends, all promoting their respective shows on iHeartRadio and other platforms.
Hockey Fever and Flyers' Playoff Run
Simon Hunter shares his excitement over the Philadelphia Flyers' playoff run, highlighting a teenage sensation scoring game-winning goals in back-to-back games. He expresses personal joy in beating rivals like Crosby and Malkin.
The Dexter Lawrence Trade Debate
“It's just two teams that feel like they've lost their ways. And since, yeah, I'll give them credit. They've gone in, I think this is like the fourth or fifth guy they've signed to the defense. Great. That's exactly what they need to do.”
Jeremiah Love: The Top Prospect
“If you have 10 guys in the box because you don't have a quarterback that can push the ball downfield, what are you going to do? Like again, it's all about what's he worth to the team long term.”
Draft Betting Markets and Value Plays
“This line feels soft. It feels wrong. It feels like it's too much of the bias of the conversation about him being an older prospect and not about where he can actually go in the first round of the NFL draft.”
“If you have 10 guys in the box because you don't have a quarterback that can push the ball downfield, what are you going to do? Like again, it's all about what's he worth to the team long term.”
“I can't believe that numbers move this much. It's very telling. And if you wake up – if you bet it now and you wake up Thursday morning, it's minus 300 over one-and-a-half quarterbacks, that's the best feeling ever because, like, you've already won.”
“It's just two teams that feel like they've lost their ways. And since, yeah, I'll give them credit. They've gone in, I think this is like the fourth or fifth guy they've signed to the defense. Great. That's exactly what they need to do.”
Hosts
Guest
Simon Hunter
person
Chad Millman
person
Derek Brown
person
Jeremiah Love
person
Ty Simpson
person
Dexter Lawrence
person
AJ Brown
person
Cincinnati Bengals
organization
New York Giants
organization
Philadelphia Eagles
organization
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