Shipping forecast: will America’s blockade work?

This episode of The Intelligence from The Economist examines two major global developments: the escalating U.S. blockade strategy against Iran and the deepening humanitarian crisis in Burkina Faso. The U.S., under Donald Trump, has launched a naval blockade targeting ships using Iranian ports and coastal waters, aiming to economically strangle Iran and force it back to the negotiating table over its nuclear program. However, experts warn this strategy is a dangerous gamble that could trigger global energy market turmoil, disrupt shipping for allies like China, France, and Turkey, and provoke retaliatory attacks from Iran and the Houthis. Iran’s ability to endure economic pressure—through oil stockpiling, currency printing, and credit lines—casts doubt on the blockade’s effectiveness, especially with Trump facing midterm elections and rising inflation. Meanwhile, in the Sahel, Burkina Faso’s military leader Ibrahim Traore has intensified a brutal 'scorched earth' campaign against jihadists, resulting in widespread civilian casualties, war crimes, and accusations of ethnic cleansing against the Fulani. Despite international condemnation, Traore’s hardline approach remains popular in urban centers, but experts argue it fuels recruitment for jihadist groups, making the insurgency worse rather than better. The episode also briefly touches on the rising popularity of sparkling water as a non-alcoholic alternative, tracing its history from 18th-century experiments to modern global brands.