S8 Ep970: Anatol Lieven analyzes Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg, which damaged energy infrastructure and embarrassed the Kremlin during an economic forum. Lieven observes that the war has evolved into a "battle of drones," undermining Russia's impAnatol
The war in Ukraine has fundamentally shifted from a conventional conflict to a 'battle of drones,' as demonstrated by Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg during Vladimir Putin’s high-profile economic forum—directly undermining Russia’s imperial image and exposing vulnerabilities in its air defenses. Anatol Lieven argues that these strikes are not just tactical but symbolic: they signal that Russia’s self-perception as an invincible empire is crumbling, especially as Ukrainian drones now reach NATO territory and threaten Russia’s critical energy infrastructure. With Russia forced to keep oil in the 'shadow fleet' to avoid drone attacks, and growing war fatigue evident in Russian public opinion, the war’s dynamics have become more balanced than ever. Lieven warns that Putin’s original war aims—blocking NATO expansion, preventing Ukrainian alignment with the West, and securing a pliant government—have all failed spectacularly. Instead, Ukraine is now a Western-aligned military and technological powerhouse, while Russia faces economic strain and domestic disillusionment. The episode concludes with a call for a diplomatic 'golden bridge' to allow Putin to de-escalate without appearing defeated, given that further military gains are now unlikely. The drone campaign has transformed the war into a high-stakes asymmetrical contest where technological agility and precision now matter more than sheer military size.
Ukrainian drone strikes on St. Petersburg during Putin’s economic forum were a symbolic blow to Russia’s imperial self-image.
Russia is now forced to keep oil in the 'shadow fleet' to avoid drone attacks, signaling a strategic concession.
The war has evolved into a 'battle of drones,' making it increasingly difficult for Russia to maintain military dominance.
Ukrainian drone technology is now capable of threatening Siberian oil and gas production, posing a major economic risk to Russia.
Putin’s original war aims—blocking NATO, controlling Ukraine, and protecting Russian speakers—have all failed.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
Drone Strike on St. Petersburg During Putin's Economic Forum
“Visiting Petersburg once in my life, in 85, towards the end of the Cold War. It's an imperial city that feels not entirely populated. It's a vast landscape built over centuries by the Tsars, by the court, and lots of roads and bridges that are just expansive of a Russian empire.”
The Symbolism and Strategic Impact of the Drone Attack
“The fact that the Ukrainian drones could penetrate Russian air defenses in this way is certainly a blow. And I don't know whether to Russia's image of itself, I mean, you know, Russia has suffered a great deal worse than this in its history. But certainly to the prestige of the Putin administration...”
The War as a Battle of Drones and Economic Pressure
“This war is becoming a battle of drones. And it's not clear that Russia has the advantage there.”
The Failure of Putin’s Original War Aims
“He wanted to keep Ukraine out of the Western alliance. Well, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but in every other way that matters, of course. Ukraine has been deeply anchored in the West.”
The Need for a Diplomatic 'Golden Bridge'
“It might be a good moment to offer, you know, Putin what is called in war and diplomacy a golden bridge so that he can, you know, essentially declare victory, claim victory or at least not victory but some kind of success and stop this.”
“So you know, it might be a good moment to offer, you know, Putin what is called in war and diplomacy a golden bridge so that he can, you know, essentially declare victory, claim victory or at least not victory but some kind of success and stop this.”
“He wanted to keep Ukraine out of the Western alliance. Well, Ukraine isn't in NATO, but in every other way that matters, of course. Ukraine has been deeply anchored in the West.”
“This war is becoming a battle of drones. And it's not clear that Russia has the advantage there.”
Host
Guest
Vladimir Putin
person
Anatol Lieven
person
St. Petersburg
place
NATO
organization
Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft
organization
Bloomberg
organization
Finland
place
Sweden
place
Zelensky
person
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