Lawfare Archive: Hunter Marston on the South China Sea

This archived episode of The Lawfare Podcast from October 25, 2024, features a deep dive into the geopolitical and legal complexities of the South China Sea, moderated by Kevin Frazier and guest Hunter Marston, a Ph.D. candidate at the Australian National University. The discussion centers on the competing maritime claims of littoral states—including China, the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei, and Taiwan—and the strategic significance of the region, which hosts roughly one-third of global trade and trillions in annual commerce. Marston unpacks the legal framework of UNCLOS, the controversial nine-dash line, and China’s extensive artificial island-building and militarization efforts, particularly in the Spratly Islands. The episode also examines the U.S. role through Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOPS), the shifting foreign policies of regional players like the Philippines under Marcos Jr. and Vietnam’s hedging strategy, and the implications for U.S.-China relations, especially in the context of a potential Taiwan invasion. Marston emphasizes the importance of maintaining alliances, respecting partner neutrality, and reinforcing multilateral partnerships like the Quad and AUKUS to counterbalance China’s growing influence. Key takeaways include: (1) The South China Sea is a critical chokepoint for global trade and a flashpoint for great power competition; (2) China’s artificial island construction and militarization are strategic moves to extend control and deter rivals; (3) The U.S. must sustain FONOPS to uphold international law and deter coercion, even as it respects regional partners’ hedging strategies; (4) The Philippines’ renewed alignment with the U.S. under Marcos Jr. makes it a pivotal player; (5) Vietnam maintains a delicate balance between economic ties with China and strategic deterrence via partnerships with the U.S. and others; (6) Taiwan’s historical claims to the South China Sea are largely symbolic, and abandoning them could enhance its regional legitimacy; (7) Future U.S. administrations—whether Harris or a second Trump term—must prioritize alliance cohesion and multilateralism over unilateralism to preserve a free and open Indo-Pacific.