Lawfare Archive: The Return of the Syrian Civil War

The Syrian civil war has erupted into a full-scale conflict once again, with rebel forces led by Hay'at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) capturing Aleppo and nearly all of Idlib province in just five days—an unprecedented collapse of regime defenses. Charles Lister, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute, explains that this dramatic shift wasn't due to foreign intervention but to a four-and-a-half-year transformation of the opposition: HTS and allied groups have professionalized their military, developed indigenous weapons including suicide drones and cruise missiles, and trained intensively in nighttime operations. Meanwhile, the Syrian regime has stagnated, its military corrupted by organized crime and lacking coordination. Despite Russia’s continued troop presence and Iran’s distraction by Gaza, the regime’s internal decay made it vulnerable. The U.S. faces a critical choice: disengage and risk an ISIS resurgence in the northeast, or maintain its 900 troops and partnership with the SDF to prevent chaos. Lister warns that without international coordination, Syria’s collapse will continue to destabilize the region—proving that ignored crises inevitably return with greater force.