Lawfare Daily: Terrorism and Insurgency in sub-Saharan Africa

This episode of the Lawfare Podcast examines the complex landscape of terrorism, insurgency, and state fragility across sub-Saharan Africa, with a focus on the Sahel, the Horn of Africa, and the Lake Chad Basin. Host Daniel Byman is joined by Holly Berkeley Fletcher, a former CIA Africa analyst, and Alexander Palmer of CSIS, who discuss the rise of transnational jihadist groups such as JNIM, ISWAP, Al-Shabaab, and the Islamic State's regional affiliates. The conversation reveals that while these groups are often labeled as terrorist organizations, they function more as insurgencies with local political motivations, providing a form of parallel governance and security in areas where state institutions have failed. The hosts emphasize that state weakness—driven by poor governance, economic marginalization, and historical center-periphery divides—is the root cause of extremism, with groups exploiting these conditions rather than being purely ideologically driven. The discussion also covers the increasing use of drones by militant groups, the impact of global conflicts like the Iran war on African stability, and the failure of U.S. counterterrorism efforts due to a lack of focus on long-term state-building. Despite the grim outlook, the panel suggests that targeted investments in economic development, political inclusion, and regional diplomacy could offer pathways to stability, though such efforts require sustained, coherent international engagement. Key takeaways include: 1) State failure is the primary driver of extremism in Africa, not ideology alone; 2) Groups like JNIM and ISWAP function as hybrid insurgencies, offering security and governance in lieu of weak states; 3) U.S. counterterrorism strategy has been ineffective because it focuses on military action rather than addressing root causes like governance and development; 4) The Iran war threatens African stability by disrupting trade, fuel, and food security, especially in East Africa; 5) Regional cooperation and economic inclusion—such as benefit-sharing from natural gas projects in Mozambique—could undermine extremist appeal; 6) The U.S. must rebuild its commitment to democratic engagement and state-building in Africa, not just military aid; 7) The future of global jihad may increasingly be African, with local groups developing global ambitions over time; 8) Drone use by extremist groups is rising, particularly in the Sahel, signaling a shift in asymmetric warfare.