'It's the politics of the personal': Behind the latest US-Iran negotiations

The fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran, which had held for two months, was tested by a series of tit-for-tat strikes earlier this week—marking the first time Iran directly targeted northern Israel since the truce began. Middle East analyst Roger Shanahan explains that these escalations were less about military strategy and more about high-stakes political messaging, particularly from Iran, which is demanding Lebanon be included in any future peace deal. The real power struggle, however, lies not on the battlefield but in Washington, where Donald Trump’s public threats to Netanyahu—claiming he ‘calls the shot’—are less about leverage and more about posturing. Shanahan reveals that Trump’s obsession with outdoing the Obama-era JCPOA is driven by personal vanity, not policy: he needs to frame any new deal as superior, despite it likely being nearly identical to the 2015 agreement. The region, especially Gulf states, is economically devastated and desperate for a negotiated end, but the White House’s short attention span and political incentives make a lasting peace difficult. Ultimately, the conflict’s end will come not from military victory, but from exhaustion—both in Washington and Tehran—and the recognition that the region must live with Iran for decades, long after Trump’s presidency ends.