Friday Focus: Iran's window of maximum leverage and a new AI model puts financial systems at risk

The world stands at a precipice as Iran and the United States engage in a high-stakes standoff over the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, with both sides refusing to yield despite mounting global consequences. Roger Griffiths and Janice Grostein dissect the geopolitical deadlock, arguing that neither side sees urgency because each believes time is on their side—Trump betting on economic pressure from oil storage limits, Iran counting on the midterms to shift U.S. policy. Yet the real danger lies in the 'window of maximum leverage' both sides perceive, where inaction becomes a weapon. With hyperinflation ravaging Iran’s economy, the middle class collapsing, and global food and energy markets destabilized by climate shocks and disrupted supply chains, the risk of a sudden military escalation looms. The hosts warn that this isn’t just a bilateral crisis—it’s a polycrisis, where climate, economics, and geopolitics converge. They conclude that the only viable path forward is negotiation, not force, though both sides are actively preparing for Plan B, including targeted strikes and untested hypersonic missile deployments. The episode ends with a stark warning: the next few weeks could determine whether the world avoids a global recession—or plunges into war. The episode underscores that the true danger isn’t just the nuclear program or oil blockades, but the psychological illusion of control—both leaders believing they can outwait the other, while the world gasps for air.