Friday Focus: Munk Debate on Foreign Wars, a shaky ceasefire with Iran, and Carney braces for tough trade talks

The world is facing its most severe energy shock since the 1970s, driven by a fragile ceasefire in the Iran conflict that has instead triggered a prolonged economic war. With the Straits of Hormuz still closed due to Iranian naval actions and mine-laden waters, global energy markets are under unprecedented strain. Even if hostilities end, demining could take up to six months, and the economic fallout—already visible in soaring fuel, fertilizer, and commodity prices—will persist for years. The International Energy Agency has declared this the largest energy disruption in modern history, surpassing both the 1970s oil crisis and the pandemic’s supply shocks. Inflation is not just a short-term spike but a structural threat, with the potential to trigger stagflation: stagnant growth combined with soaring prices. This economic pressure is already fueling political instability in vulnerable nations and could reshape the 2026 midterms, with populism resurgent in both the U.S. and Europe. Yet, the deeper crisis lies in systemic failure: governments are avoiding tough choices, relying on debt instead of sacrifice, and failing to rekindle the civic responsibility seen in past eras. The hosts warn that our hyper-connected world amplifies every shock, turning isolated crises into a cascading 'polycrisis'—and without a return to sobriety, fiscal discipline, and public engagement, we risk repeating the same mistakes with even greater consequences.