#167 - Andrew Lilico - Britain Is Poorer Than The Poorest US State
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In this episode of The Peter McCormack Show, economist Andrew Lilico delivers a stark assessment of the UK's economic decline, arguing that Britain is now poorer than the poorest U.S. state. He traces the country's deterioration to a series of political and institutional failures since 2008, including a loss of coherence in the establishment, the erosion of shared values, and the rise of short-termist, self-serving politics. Lilico warns that without a fundamental reset—marked by honest leadership, a return to political responsibility, and a rethinking of public spending—Britain faces a fiscal crisis within the next decade, potentially triggered by a major shock or simply through the accumulation of unsustainable debt. He critiques the current system for shielding politicians from accountability, enabling endless borrowing, and failing to address the reality of the UK’s diminished economic standing. Drawing parallels with Argentina’s decline, he emphasizes that no country is immune to collapse, especially when it refuses to adjust its expectations to its true economic condition. Lilico calls for a return to a smaller state, lower public spending, and re-politicized decision-making, urging both voters and leaders to accept hard truths and embrace bold, principled reform.
The UK is now poorer than the poorest U.S. state, with GDP per capita lower than in 2008 and significantly behind global peers.
The UK’s economic decline is self-inflicted, driven by political short-termism, loss of institutional coherence, and a failure to confront economic reality.
Public spending has surged from 39% to 45% of GDP since 2018-19, a rise that is not due to demographics but political choices.
Lilico advocates for cutting public spending back to 2018-19 levels ($180 billion) and eventually to 35% of GDP, as seen in the 1980s and 2000s when growth was strong.
He calls for abolishing Bank of England independence and reinstating annual, binding inflation targets to restore credibility to monetary policy.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The UK’s Economic Decline: From Rich to Poorest U.S. State
“In the first quarter of 2008, UK GDP per capita was higher than that in the US. You might well see the kind of thing that we saw in the 70s, two or three years of 25, 20, 25% inflation.”
The Collapse of the Establishment and Shared Values
Lilico explains how the UK’s political establishment lost its internal coherence—no longer united by a shared vision of post-Christian liberalism, national purpose, or belief in economic justice. This has led to policy contradictions and a lack of sacrifice.
The Rise of Short-Termism and Political Cynicism
Politicians now operate without long-term goals, driven by opinion polls and fear of voter backlash. Lilico argues this has created a system where no one is willing to make hard choices, leading to perpetual decline.
The Illusion of Independence: Bank of England and Political Accountability
Lilico criticizes the Bank of England’s independence, arguing it has become a shield for politicians. He calls for annual, binding inflation targets and re-politicizing monetary policy to restore accountability.
The Need for Radical Economic Reform and Honest Leadership
“I think we need to massively cut our spending. I think we're much poorer than we say we are and we live in beyond our means.”
“The UK is now poorer than the poorest U.S. state.”
“I think we need to massively cut our spending. I think we're much poorer than we say we are and we live in beyond our means.”
“Argentina is an interesting illustration that just because you're a rich, developed country doesn't mean you're entitled to stay a rich developed country.”
Host
Guest
Andrew Lilico
person
Peter McCormack
person
Bank of England
organization
Labour Party
organization
Conservative Party
organization
Argentina
place
Reform Party
organization
US
place
Green Party
organization
Nigel Farage
person
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