PDB Situation Report | May 23rd, 2026: Ukraine Is Turning The Tide Against Russia & China’s Power Play

Ukraine is turning the tide against Russia in a dramatic shift fueled by its mastery of drone warfare, according to Christina Harward of the Institute for the Study of War. After months of grinding Russian advances, Ukrainian forces have reclaimed hundreds of square kilometers in southern and northeastern Ukraine, largely due to mid- and long-range drone strikes that are disrupting Russian supply lines and even targeting infrastructure near Moscow. These strikes expose a critical vulnerability: Russia lacks sufficient air defenses to protect its rear, a problem it once imposed on Ukraine. Meanwhile, China is deepening its strategic alignment with Russia, with European intelligence reporting Chinese entities have trained Russian drone operators and supplied key components to both sides in the war. Gordon Chang warns that China’s growing influence—evidenced by hosting both Trump and Putin—poses a direct threat to U.S. credibility, especially as Beijing undermines American alliances and security through espionage, biological weapons labs on U.S. soil, and economic coercion. The real test, Chang argues, will be whether President Trump follows through on a $14 billion arms sale to Taiwan and dares to speak directly with Taiwan’s president, a move that could redefine U.S. resolve in the face of Chinese aggression.