Call Me Back: Is the war going well? – A debate between Dan Shapiro and Mark Dubowitz

In this high-stakes debate on The Ricochet Superfeed, Dan Shapiro and Mark Dubowitz confront the pivotal question: Is the war against Iran going well? With Israel under rocket fire and the Strait of Hormuz blockaded, the conversation centers on strategic clarity, military effectiveness, and the long-term viability of U.S. policy. Shapiro, a former U.S. ambassador to Israel, argues that the war was launched without a coherent strategy, with President Trump failing to brief Congress or allies, leading to widespread public opposition. He advocates for consolidating gains through a ceasefire, diplomatic pressure, and long-term support for Iranian dissidents—what he calls 'mowing the lawn'—rather than risking an unsustainable military escalation. Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, counters that the war has been strategically sound, with significant degradation of Iran’s nuclear, missile, and leadership capabilities. He frames the conflict as a race against three ticking clocks—nuclear breakout, regime survival, and American will—and insists that only sustained pressure can prevent Iran from reconstituting its threat. Both agree on the need to support the Iranian people, but diverge sharply on whether military force is the best path to regime change. The episode ends with a sobering assessment: halting now preserves hard-won gains and avoids catastrophic global economic and geopolitical fallout, while continuing the war risks exhausting U.S. political will and empowering adversaries like China and Russia.