Would you bet on the next disaster? The rise of prediction markets
Get the full intelligence
Search transcripts, export clips, track mentions, and explore all topics from “Would you bet on the next disaster? The rise of prediction markets” inside PodZeus.
This episode of The Take explores the rapid rise of prediction markets like Polymarket and Calci, where users bet on real-world events ranging from political outcomes and sports to bizarre personal predictions. Host Tamara Kondogar interviews NPR correspondent Bobby Allen, who delves into the ethical, practical, and existential implications of turning global uncertainty into a financial game. While proponents argue these markets harness the 'wisdom of the crowd' to produce more accurate forecasts than traditional media or polling, the episode reveals deep concerns: markets can incentivize manipulation, encourage insider trading, and even threaten national security by leaking military plans. A high-profile case involving a U.S. special forces soldier allegedly profiting from classified information on Maduro’s removal underscores the risks. The Trump administration’s hands-off regulatory stance, coupled with family ties to the industry, has enabled unchecked growth. The episode warns that prediction markets are no longer niche—they're becoming central to how we interpret global events, blurring the line between information, speculation, and manipulation. As these platforms grow, they risk distorting reality, undermining democracy, and normalizing the commodification of catastrophe.
Prediction markets like Polymarket and Calci allow betting on real-world events, from elections to wildfires, creating financial incentives that can distort reality.
The rise of these markets is fueled by a lack of regulation, a court victory allowing election betting, and political alignment under the Trump administration.
There is a serious risk of insider trading and real-world manipulation, as seen in the case of a special forces soldier who allegedly used classified information to profit.
Prediction markets may undermine democratic processes by amplifying fringe candidates through speculative momentum, potentially influencing voter behavior.
The culture around these platforms is nihilistic and profit-driven, with traders focused solely on making money rather than understanding or shaping policy.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The Rise of the Global Casino
“What happens when people have money riding on the worst thing happening?”
How Prediction Markets Work
Bobby explains the mechanics of platforms like Polymarket and Calci, where users bet on anything from weather to political statements. He emphasizes the shift from academic theory to real-world financialization, with markets now covering everything from sports to existential questions.
The Wisdom of the Crowd vs. Reality Warping
“How does that not encourage people to make the fire spread? If you have money on the line and you want this to sort of reach more acreage, why not just do it yourself?”
The Court Battle That Unleashed Prediction Markets
“The Biden administration said, oh, no, this is a terrible opinion. We're appealing. But then Trump came into office and dropped the appeal.”
The Altruistic Rhetoric vs. the Profit-Driven Reality
Market founders claim prediction markets serve a higher purpose—informing decisions, hedging risk, and creating objective truth. But critics question the practicality of hedging against trivial or catastrophic events, and the lack of real-world examples to back the claims.
“Everything is going to have a prediction market implication until it is fully shut down and until there is a scandal big enough to really take the entire industry down.”
“How does that not encourage people to make the fire spread? If you have money on the line and you want this to sort of reach more acreage, why not just do it yourself?”
“If you're the opposing military and you're like, when is the U.S. going to strike? And you just see, oh, my God, there's been millions of dollars saying in an hour, it's probably him.”
Host
Guest
Bobby Allen
person
Tamara Kondogar
person
Polymarket
other
Calci
other
Donald Trump
person
Donald Trump Jr.
person
Nicolas Maduro
person
U.S. Special Forces
organization
Discord
other
Senate
organization
Why Iran says its universities are being targeted
The Take • 22m • 4/1/2026
Who’s in charge in Iran after leadership strikes?
The Take • 16m • 4/1/2026
Palestine 36: A film about a revolt that nearly changed history
The Take • 23m • 4/3/2026
Another Take: The meaning of Easter in Palestine
The Take • 22m • 4/4/2026
How Asia became ground zero for the oil crisis
The Take • 21m • 4/6/2026
Get the full intelligence
Search transcripts, export clips, track mentions, and explore all topics from “Would you bet on the next disaster? The rise of prediction markets” inside PodZeus.
Start discovering podcast insights today
Start with a 7-day trial and explore a growing catalog of popular podcasts. No credit card required.
No credit card required • 7-day trial • Cancel anytime