Lazar Berman: What does history of air power tell us about Iran war?

In this wartime edition of The Times of Israel Daily Briefing, host Lazar Berman explores the historical effectiveness of strategic air bombing through a conversation with diplomatic analyst Nava Freiburg. The discussion traces the evolution of air power from 18th-century balloons to modern precision strikes, examining key conflicts including World War I, World War II, Vietnam, the Gulf War, and Kosovo. While air power has proven highly effective at destroying military infrastructure and degrading capabilities—such as Iran’s air force, navy, and nuclear program—it has consistently failed to achieve regime change or break civilian morale. Historical examples, from the Blitz to the bombing of Japan and the Kosovo campaign, reveal that populations often rally in response to aerial attacks, and leadership persists even after targeted strikes. Israel’s shift from a ground-focused military to one increasingly reliant on air power since the 1970s is also analyzed, with caution about overestimating the strategic impact of bombing alone. The episode concludes with skepticism about whether the current U.S.-Israeli campaign against Iran will break historical patterns, despite high hopes for air power to deliver decisive results without ground invasion. Key takeaways include: strategic bombing excels at destruction but not regime change; civilian populations often become more resilient under bombardment; air power has historically required ground forces to achieve lasting outcomes; technological optimism has repeatedly outpaced reality; and the current campaign may be setting up another test of whether air power can truly win wars alone. The episode underscores the enduring limits of air power and the importance of historical context when assessing modern military strategy.