Bitcoin RIPS Past $66K On Trump's Iran Deal – Macro Monday

Bitcoin surged past $66,000 on headlines of a Trump-backed Iran ceasefire deal—though the panelists dismissed it as more of a temporary truce than a lasting peace. The real driver, they argue, was liquidity: SpaceX’s IPO didn’t drain capital from risk assets as feared, freeing up billions for equities, crypto, and commodities. This liquidity wave, combined with a massive pump-and-dump cycle across oil, grains, metals, and crypto, has created a fragile rally dependent on the stock market staying elevated. The hosts warn that the market is now in a 'hated rally'—a grinding, frustrating ascent fueled by exhausted sellers and new demand from retail via Fidelity’s IPO access. They also challenge the Fed’s traditional inflation-fighting role, arguing that modern inflation stems from monetary expansion, not consumer demand, and that the Fed’s models are obsolete. The real risk isn’t a rate hike, but a sudden liquidity withdrawal—something they believe is unlikely. Instead, they predict a prolonged period of inflationary pressure, driven by fiscal recklessness and technological deflation, with the only escape being massive economic growth. The episode ends with a stark warning: the next president may be a Democrat, but the market’s fate hinges not on politics, but on whether new capital floods in from the mainstream—because the crypto rally won’t be driven by believers, but by the uninitiated.