The extraction industry powering the green transition (from the Rhodes Center Podcast)

The global race for lithium isn't just about decarbonization—it's a geopolitical battleground where the Global North's push for green dominance clashes with the Global South's demand for sovereignty and development. In her book *Extraction: The Frontiers of Green Capitalism*, political scientist Thea Riofrancos reveals how the green transition is not a clean break from extractive capitalism, but a continuation of it—now powered by lithium. She traces how Latin America, particularly Chile, has long been a site of resource extraction, and how today’s lithium boom echoes past cycles of boom-and-bust, environmental harm, and unfulfilled promises. Yet the real story isn’t just about mining—it’s about power: who controls the supply chains, who benefits, and how climate goals are shaped by geopolitical rivalry. China has built a near-monopoly in lithium refining and EV manufacturing, while the U.S. and EU struggle with industrial policy paralysis and political fragmentation. But Riofrancos offers a hopeful counter-narrative: technological innovation—like sodium-lithium hybrid batteries, smarter urban planning, and aggressive recycling—could slash lithium demand by up to 95% by 2050. The future isn’t inevitable—it’s a choice shaped by political will, not just market forces.