Is the ceasefire in the Gulf too late to stop food prices rising?

The BBC's World Business Report examines whether the recent ceasefire between Iran and the United States is too late to prevent a surge in global food prices. Despite the fragile truce, shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted, with only nine vessels passing through since the agreement—far below the normal 140 daily. This bottleneck is driving up fuel and fertilizer costs, directly impacting farmers in Thailand and other key agricultural nations. Maximo Torreiro, chief economist at the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organization, warns that if the closure persists beyond 60 days, food inflation will spike by the second half of 2026 and into 2027, affecting global food security. The crisis disproportionately threatens food-importing nations with weak financial reserves. While there is enough food today, the supply chain disruptions could trigger export restrictions and economic instability. Meanwhile, seafarers remain stranded on ships, and the international community is exploring a humanitarian corridor similar to the Black Sea grain deal. Investors are reacting with volatility, and energy-intensive industries like AI data centers are already feeling the strain, with OpenAI pausing operations in the UK. The episode underscores the urgent need for coordinated global action to restore maritime freedom and prevent a deepening food and economic crisis.