Oil hits new highs - how bad will it get?

Oil prices surged to a four-year high of $126 per barrel amid escalating tensions in the Gulf, driven by Iran's defiant nuclear stance and fears of U.S. military action. The spike was exacerbated by technical factors like low liquidity in expiring futures contracts, but quickly reversed as markets reacted to the volatility. Experts debate whether this represents a long-term crisis or a temporary shock. Professor Dieter Helm from Oxford argues that high oil prices historically trigger supply responses—increased production from the U.S., Brazil, Canada, and Russia—and that China’s economic leverage may prevent prolonged disruption to the Strait of Hormuz. He warns against overblown fears, citing past oil crises that ended in sharp price declines. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy shows signs of stagnation with weak consumer spending, though tech investment and Apple’s strong performance offer some optimism. In China, the surge in oil prices is accelerating the EV revolution, with companies like Xiaomi and BYD showcasing cutting-edge electric vehicles and ultra-fast charging technology. India faces a growing digital fraud epidemic, with nearly $2.5 billion lost in a year, prompting the Reserve Bank to propose new safeguards like delayed transactions and enhanced authentication for older users. Saudi Arabia is pulling out of the Liv Golf Tour after a $1 billion investment with no return, signaling a retreat from sports as a brand-building tool. Finally, the first direct U.S.-Venezuela flight in seven years symbolizes warming diplomatic ties, while Venezuela raises its minimum wage amid calls to end sanctions.