What Putin gains from the Iran war

This episode of ABC News Daily examines how Vladimir Putin has emerged as a key beneficiary of the ongoing Iran war, despite not being directly involved. International relations expert Rajan Menon explains that Russia has profited financially from soaring oil prices, especially after Donald Trump temporarily eased sanctions on Russian oil exports. Simultaneously, the war has diverted global attention from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and exposed deep fractures within NATO, as European nations like the UK, France, and Germany refuse to support Trump’s aggressive military actions against Iran. Menon highlights that NATO’s collective defense clause (Article 5) only applies when a member is attacked—not when one attacks another—and that European leaders, including Keir Starmer and Giorgia Meloni, are prioritizing national interests over U.S. pressure. The episode also explores growing European strategic autonomy, with defense spending rising sharply, joint military production underway, and serious discussions about replacing the U.S. nuclear umbrella with an Anglo-French alternative. While concerns remain about Russian cyber and espionage activities, Menon argues that a weakened, economically strained Russia after the Ukraine war is more manageable for a united Europe than the pre-war version. Still, he cautions that Trump’s unpredictable behavior makes any outcome possible, including a U.S. exit from NATO.