CJ Cup Bryon Nelson Preview & Picks

The host of Beat The Books Podcast delivers a sharp, data-driven preview of the CJ Cup at TPC Craig Ranch, calling out the shocking underdog victory of Aaron Rai at the PGA Championship—a rare major win for an Englishman in 107 years and a major surprise given his inconsistent form. The episode dives deep into the implications of this result, highlighting Alex Smalley’s consistent value plays and the importance of targeting players with strong prop market performance. The focus then shifts to the CJ Cup, where the host emphasizes the course’s ease—birdies are abundant, driving accuracy trumps distance, and the field is weakened by high-profile withdrawals. Scottie Scheffler, despite being the overwhelming favorite at +175, is deemed too overpriced to bet outright, even with his dominant form and past win here. The real value lies in players like Siwoo Kim, Jordan Spieth, and especially under-the-radar picks such as Blades Brown and Austin Eckert, whose performances could earn them a special temporary PGA Tour membership if they finish T21 or better. The host also introduces a new "golfer on the rise" segment, spotlighting Matty Schmidt and Davis Thompson, both in strong form but lacking course history here—making them high-risk, high-reward plays. The episode closes with a reminder to bet smart and stay disciplined in volatile markets.