UFC Vegas 117 Allen vs Costa Breakdowns + Picks

The host of the Beat The Books Podcast delivers a candid, data-driven breakdown of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, emphasizing that despite the main event's high stakes, it's one of the most difficult fights to handicap due to conflicting narratives. Arnold Allen, with a superior resume and better cardio, faces Costa, who's on a six-fight win streak including a first-round finish of Dan Ige. The host acknowledges Costa’s momentum but remains skeptical of his ability to finish Allen, citing Allen’s resilience under pressure and lack of knockout losses. While Allen is hittable and low-volume in striking, the host finds no clear value in betting Costa at +115, calling it a 'coin flip' and advising against forcing a bet. Instead, he leans Allen as a podcast play but doesn’t bet it personally. The episode is packed with sharp analysis on under-the-radar fights—Santos over Troy, Wellmaker over Diaz, and Bouskowska over Edwards—each with red flags like short-notice entries and inconsistent form. The host also critiques the MVP card, calling it unbettable despite its Netflix availability, and reveals his personal focus: golf. His core message? Bet smart, know your limits, and don’t chase value where it doesn’t exist.