UFC Vegas 117 Allen vs Costa Breakdowns + Picks

Beat The Books Podcast24mMay 14, 2026

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AI-Generated Summary

The host of the Beat The Books Podcast delivers a candid, data-driven breakdown of UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Costa, emphasizing that despite the main event's high stakes, it's one of the most difficult fights to handicap due to conflicting narratives. Arnold Allen, with a superior resume and better cardio, faces Costa, who's on a six-fight win streak including a first-round finish of Dan Ige. The host acknowledges Costa’s momentum but remains skeptical of his ability to finish Allen, citing Allen’s resilience under pressure and lack of knockout losses. While Allen is hittable and low-volume in striking, the host finds no clear value in betting Costa at +115, calling it a 'coin flip' and advising against forcing a bet. Instead, he leans Allen as a podcast play but doesn’t bet it personally. The episode is packed with sharp analysis on under-the-radar fights—Santos over Troy, Wellmaker over Diaz, and Bouskowska over Edwards—each with red flags like short-notice entries and inconsistent form. The host also critiques the MVP card, calling it unbettable despite its Netflix availability, and reveals his personal focus: golf. His core message? Bet smart, know your limits, and don’t chase value where it doesn’t exist.

Key Takeaways
1

Arnold Allen’s lack of knockout losses makes him resilient, but Costa’s finish power is real—this fight could be a 'coin flip' with no clear edge.

2

Don’t bet Costa +115—no value despite his streak; Allen’s cardio and experience outweigh the hype.

3

Santos is the clear play over Troy, who returns after a 2-year layoff with poor takedown defense (47%) and low fight activity.

4

Wellmaker is a better all-around fighter than Diaz, but the inflated price at -280 makes betting risky despite the skill gap.

5

Bouskowska is the play over Edwards, who’s on short notice, possibly moving up in weight, and coming in unprepared.

…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus

Chapters
0:00
2 min

Sponsor: Shopify & Mood.com

Two ad reads: Shopify is praised for enabling rapid business setup with minimal technical effort. Mood.com is promoted as a premium, federally legal cannabis delivery service with 20% off for listeners.

2:29
3 min

UFC 328 Recap: Strickland vs. Chimaev

I had Chamaev more bringing the fight more, landing the bigger shots... Chamaev did not put on a performance that we all expected him to, and it backfired.

Highlight
5:07
3 min

UFC 328 Aftermath & NHL Success

The host shares his 7-1 record in NHL playoff picks, emphasizing the importance of picking 'spots' rather than betting every day. He promotes his PGA podcast and urges listeners to subscribe and review.

8:20
3 min

Main Event Breakdown: Allen vs. Costa

I can't get to a client play on a side here... I haven't seen it yet. So because I haven't seen it yet, I can't bet or bet against it.

Highlight
11:40
5 min

Co-Main & Undercard Analysis

The host breaks down Santos vs. Troy (Santos favored), Wellmaker vs. Diaz (Wellmaker favored), and Bouskowska vs. Edwards (Bouskowska favored), citing red flags like short-notice entries and poor form.

High-Impact Quotes
I can't get to a client play on a side here... I haven't seen it yet. So because I haven't seen it yet, I can't bet or bet against it.
Host15:33
Viral: 82.0
I had Chamaev more bringing the fight more, landing the bigger shots... Chamaev did not put on a performance that we all expected him to, and it backfired.
Host7:08
Viral: 78.0
You can't bet it. Even if you get a knockout, you're paying a huge price.
Host24:59
Viral: 75.0
Speakers

Host

Host
Topics Discussed
ufc fight night95%allen vs costa90%ufc handicapping85%betting strategy80%nhl playoffs75%nfl betting70%mvp card65%cannabis delivery60%
People & Brands

arnold allen

person

12xNeutral

costa

person

10xNeutral

chimaev

person

8xNeutral

sean strickland

person

7xNeutral

sopai

person

5xNeutral

edwards

person

4xNegative

wellmaker

person

4xNeutral

mood.com

brand

4xPositive

colmaine santos

person

4xPositive

bouskowska

person

4xPositive

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