Capital Solutions: A Flexible Response to Private Equity's Exit Problem
Private equity is facing a $4 trillion liquidity crisis as high valuations from the low-rate era meet stalled exits and AI-driven market uncertainty. Yet, according to David Lyon of Neuberger Berman, this isn't a collapse—it's a structural shift creating a massive opportunity for 'hybrid capital': flexible, non-distressed financing that sits between debt and equity. Unlike traditional private credit or distressed investing, this capital isn't about fixing broken companies. Instead, it's about enabling sponsors to unlock value without selling entire businesses, using creative structures like preferred stock or convertible notes to solve DPI (Distributions to Paid-In Capital) problems. The real risk isn't default—it's mispricing and misperception. As public markets panic over AI disruption, private equity firms are stuck with overvalued portfolios and impatient LPs. Hybrid capital provides a lifeline: it offers liquidity, preserves ownership, and protects against valuation swings by structuring returns around a floor (e.g., 8–9x EBITDA) rather than pure equity risk. The key insight? This isn't a replacement for debt or equity—it’s a tailored solution for a mature, cyclical industry in transition. And the winners won’t be those who bet on chaos, but those who bring scale, speed, and transparency to a market drowning in uncertainty.
Hybrid capital is not distressed investing—it’s flexible, non-traditional financing designed to solve liquidity problems without fixing broken companies.
Private equity’s $4 trillion unrealized value problem is structural, not existential, and hybrid capital provides a scalable solution for DPI without forced sales.
Hybrid capital protects against valuation risk by structuring returns around a floor (e.g., 8–9x EBITDA), not pure equity exposure, reducing downside in volatile markets.
Unlike continuation vehicles (which take 9 months), hybrid capital deals can close in weeks due to bilateral negotiations and direct company-level investment.
The real risk isn't default—it's mispricing: public market panic over AI is distorting private valuations, creating misaligned incentives and false narratives.
…and 3 more takeaways available in PodZeus
The $4 Trillion Liquidity Crisis in Private Equity
“Roughly $4 trillion worth of equity investments are sitting inside private equity funds waiting to be sold, many acquired at high valuations during the low-rate era. But exits haven't materialised and recently we've seen software companies are difficult to value in an AI disruptive world and the pressure on some managers to return capital is mounting.”
Defining Capital Solutions: Not Distressed, Not Debt
“We are not distressed. So in plain English, we provide non-traditional capital, which means we're not alone and we're not common equity. So we have great license to be flexible in terms of how we structure these things.”
The Panic Isn't About Defaults—It's About Misunderstanding
“You haven't seen wide scale defaults yet. You've actually seen some software deals that have actually failed because frankly, they were just bad deals that had nothing to do with AI.”
The Valuation Disconnect: Why Private Marks Lag Publics
Private equity valuations haven't dropped in sync with public markets due to incentives, volatility aversion, and delayed discovery. This creates a gap that hybrid capital can exploit.
The DPI Problem: Why Exits Are Taking Longer
High valuations (16–17x EBITDA) and complex returns require more than just leverage—they demand operational improvements, combinations, and time. DPI is naturally slow.
“And we're really not a replacement for debt. These companies borrow quite efficiently, up to six times EBITDA. We're a replacement for equity that we put in debt clothing.”
“The reality is if you're junior capital and something really bad happens, it's not good, right? What we really do is we hedge against valuation risk.”
“And I tell people all the time, I want to be six foot four, but I'm five nine. No matter what I do, I'll be five nine.”
Host
Guest
David Lyon
person
private equity
other
AI
other
software companies
other
private credit
other
Neuberger Berman
organization
leveraged loans
other
continuation vehicles
other
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