Investors celebrate US-Iran deal

Investors reacted with cautious optimism to a newly announced U.S.-Iran deal that paves the way for the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, sending global equities higher and oil prices lower. Yet, despite the positive sentiment, experts warn that the inflationary effects of the conflict may persist for weeks—possibly months—due to damaged infrastructure and delayed shipping resumption. The Federal Reserve and Bank of England are expected to maintain rates, with the Fed likely removing its 'easing bias' despite no immediate hike. Meanwhile, hedge funds are aggressively betting against Europe’s auto industry, citing a structural decline driven by Chinese competition, weak demand, and U.S. tariffs. On a darker note, the Financial Times reveals a growing trend of Russian-backed online recruitment of vulnerable individuals across Europe—like a Ukrainian construction worker unknowingly hired to carry out arson attacks on UK political figures—using Telegram and crypto payments. This emerging 'gig economy of sabotage' allows hostile actors to outsource real-world actions while avoiding detection, marking a new frontier in hybrid warfare. The episode underscores a paradox: markets rally on geopolitical progress but remain wary of long-term inflation risks, while state and non-state actors exploit digital platforms to wage asymmetric warfare through unwitting proxies.