Newmont’s Stellar Q1, Arizona Capex Blowouts & Trump’s Project Vault with Analyst Joe Mazumdar

In this episode of Mining Stock Education, host Bill Powers is joined by analyst Joe Mazumdar of Exploration Insights to dissect the Q1 2026 financial results of major gold producer Newmont, highlighting a 16% year-on-year decline in gold production but a dramatic 66% increase in gold prices, which drove a 40% surge in free cash flow to $3.1 billion. Despite rising costs, Newmont’s EBITDA margin expanded to 53%, and the company is returning capital to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Mazumdar emphasizes that the majors are now focused on optimizing existing assets and M&A rather than greenfield exploration, with smaller projects like Dilmar’s Eleanor mine proving more profitable for juniors. The discussion then shifts to Arizona’s capital cost blowouts, particularly at South 32’s Taylor and Hermosa projects, where capital estimates doubled due to inflation, scope changes, and contractor issues—highlighting a systemic risk in base metal development. Arizona Metals’ release of a negative $6 million PEA at a 5% discount rate is called a rare moment of honesty, underscoring the risks of underground projects. The episode concludes with a deep dive into President Trump’s proposed $12 billion Project Vault for critical minerals, analyzing its potential to create price floors and incentivize domestic production, while cautioning about governance risks and self-regulation in the junior mining sector. A standout case of fraud at RPX Gold, where former CEO Quinton Yari faced criminal charges for falsifying assays, underscores the need for strong board oversight and ethical leadership.